Osborne's Cuts
The one thing that the Treasury has been spending more money on is red ink. The £81bn of cuts outlined in today’s Spending Review are the largest and most sustained since World War Two. Even though, at the end of the process, the government will still be spending (as a percentage of GDP) what it was spending in 2006; and even though the departmental cuts are not as severe as forecast in July (19% on average, as opposed to 25%), Britain needs to brace itself for a period of pain - and intense political debate.
Who will hurt the most? The loudest shrieks will be thanks to three incisions of Osborne’s scalpel.
First, local government. The Department for Communities and Local Government will see a 33% cut in spending – capital spending will fall by almost 75%. Grants to local government will fall by a quarter. For Conservative and Lib Dem councillors fighting for re-election next May, the outlook is not great.
Second, welfare. A further £7bn will be cut by changing a range of benefits - on top of the £11bn announced in July. Get ready for all the special interest groups to start petitioning and protesting.
And finally, the public sector workforce itself. Quite apart from the forecast loss of 500,000 posts (the police budget alone is being sliced by 20%), public sector employees will be asked to contribute a further £1.7bn a year to their pensions.
This alone gives the Government’s critics plenty of targets. Add tax rises (VAT, the 50p rate, pension tax relief), council house rent rises, rail fares, student fee increases - Ed Miliband has a surfeit of political opportunities. The Coalition’s defence - “we’re all in this together” - is clear in the Review. Spending more on pupils from poor backgrounds; protecting benefits for the elderly, increasing child tax credits while cutting child benefit for the richest, safeguarding the NHS and DfID budgets - all these have an eye on the floating voter, who deserted the Tories in 1997 and only came back in 2010.
It remains to be seen whether this will be enough to retain voters’ loyalty and, crucially, win back voters in those marginal seats the Conservatives should have won (especially in the North). The best way to stop political disaffection spreading is, of course, to get the economy growing again. The signs are mixed as to whether the economy has turned the corner. The only thing we can be sure of is that the pain of the cuts - and tax rises - has yet to be felt.
Posted by
Quiller Consultants on
08/03/2011 18:50:29 | with
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