Tomorrow, David Cameron will have been Prime Minister for a year. Our observations on the lie of the political landscape, and the impact of last week's elections and referendum, are as follows:

• David Cameron is in the strongest position of all the three party leaders – arguably he is in a stronger position than he was a year ago. His party gained council seats last week, confounding the pundits who predicted he could lose up to 1,000: this is hardly the sign of a party being punished for the deepest and most sustained cuts to public spending since World War Two. The resounding victory for the “no” campaign in the AV referendum means the Conservatives can pocket the proposed boundary changes, which benefit them, without changing the voting system. The question now is how will the Prime Minister capitalise on all this? Thursday’s results do not suggest that a Conservative outright victory in a General Election is a foregone conclusion – there is much the Conservatives need to do to win back voters’ support in the North of England. Hence Cameron has poured cold water on the idea of a “snap” General Election. He has also ruled out a reshuffle. It may well be that he simply wants to store his political capital given the turbulence the Coalition faces – which brings us to the Liberal Democrats.

• Although the Liberal Democrats have become Cameron’s “air raid shelter”, the Parliament will still most likely last till 2015 as the Liberal Democrats have nowhere to go. Furthermore, both they and the Conservatives need the electorate to feel the benefits of growth before the next General Election. However, Nick Clegg’s position is likely to remain precarious in the immediate future and there is an increased risk that Lib Dem internal politics could destabilise the Coalition.

• The Conservatives will make concessions to the Lib Dems, but only if such concessions are within the Coalition Agreement. So there is likely to be some give on the NHS reforms, elected police commissioners and the reform of public services; as well more focus on progressive cuts in tax and on tax avoidance, something on House of Lords reform and a wish to the see the Interim Report of the Independent Commission on Banking implemented in full.

• Meanwhile, the Conservative “Right” will argue that no further concessions are made to the Lib Dems – especially on issues such as controlling immigration and encouraging the private provision of public services.

• The tensions caused by the recent campaign mean that the Coalition may well make greater use of the formal mechanisms and processes of Government. This means that the Civil Servants are likely to become even more influential, as decisions will have to be brokered by them.

• Labour have yet to make headway where it needs to - in the South, where it is still failing to win back swing voters. This, alongside the poor performance in Scotland, has raised questions about Ed Miliband’s tactical approach which is largely focused on seeking to exploit Government unpopularity over the cuts. As a result, tension is likely to increase in the Shadow Cabinet over whether the party is doing enough to articulate a clear vision of its own, and how best to make its emerging policy positions seem credible. Miliband will come under pressure to lead this process and demonstrate he is capable of making tough decisions.

• The new found power of the SNP means that anyone with interests in Scotland will now need to cope with a Scottish Government that, for the first time, will be able to do what it likes and not have to make concessions to its coalition allies. Furthermore, the big new issue in UK politics is Scottish independence, which will occupy an increasing amount of Cameron’s time and attention.